II CONFERÊNCIAS TEMÁTICAS APS 2025 – CATÁSTROFES NATURAIS: É HORA DE PREVENIR E DE AGIR

Entre 1981 e 2023, as catástrofes naturais resultaram em perdas diretas na União Europeia estimadas em aproximadamente 900 mil milhões de euros. Um quinto desse montante foi registado apenas nos últimos três anos, o que evidencia uma tendência crescente na frequência e severidade destes fenómenos. Tal panorama reforça a necessidade urgente de uma estratégia europeia integrada para a gestão de riscos catastróficos, como tem vindo a alertar o Banco Central Europeu (BCE) e a Autoridade Europeia dos Seguros e Pensões Complementares de Reforma (EIOPA), que advogam uma abordagem faseada para mitigar a insuficiência de cobertura securitária.

Neste contexto, a Associação Portuguesa de Seguradores (APS) promoveu as II Conferências Temáticas APS 2025 – “Os Seguros num Mundo em Transformação”, inaugurando o ciclo com o tema “Nat-cat: no caminho para um sistema europeu integrado de gestão de riscos catastróficos”. O evento juntou especialistas do setor, com o propósito de analisar soluções que possam fortalecer a resiliência e a sustentabilidade perante um cenário de risco crescente.

A sessão de abertura esteve a cargo de José Galamba de Oliveira, Presidente da APS, que destacou a pertinência do tema ao assinalar que, aquando da organização do evento, não era previsível que Portugal estivesse, nesse momento, a recuperar de eventos extremos associados a riscos naturais (concretamente, as consequências da passagem da Depressão Martinho pelo território nacional). Salientou a necessidade de um setor segurador mais preparado, identificando os dois principais tipos de riscos catastróficos – sísmico e climático – e defendeu o reforço da capacidade de resposta nacional. Sublinhou ainda o trabalho que a APS tem desenvolvido nesta área, com vista à apresentação de propostas concretas aos decisores políticos.

Nicolas Jeanmart, Diretor da Insurance Europe para as áreas de seguros pessoais, gerais e macroeconomia, apresentou a visão europeia sobre a gestão dos riscos catastróficos.

Por sua vez, Christopher Yeates, Diretor na Guy Carpenter, uma das principais consultoras globais em resseguros, apresentou uma análise sobre a implementação de parcerias público-privadas (PPPs) na cobertura de riscos catastróficos.

Finalmente, José Luís Leão, Coordenador da Subcomissão de Riscos Catastróficos da APS, centrou a sua intervenção na realidade portuguesa. Defensor ativo da criação de um sistema nacional de proteção contra riscos catastróficos, com especial enfoque no risco sísmico, analisou o impacto dos eventos extremos e demonstrou que os chamados riscos secundários se têm tornado cada vez mais recorrentes.

No final da conferência, reforçou-se o papel fundamental dos seguros na estabilidade económica e na proteção da sociedade, sublinhando que, face ao agravamento dos riscos naturais, torna-se imperativo o desenvolvimento de estratégias integradas que envolvam todos os stakeholders, promovendo uma cultura de resiliência e sustentabilidade.

A crescente incidência de fenómenos extremos exige uma ação concertada e célere, que envolva um compromisso firme por parte dos governos, seguradoras e cidadãos. A implementação de políticas públicas eficazes, aliadas a um setor segurador robusto e inovador, será determinante para minimizar impactos socioeconómicos e garantir uma proteção adequada das comunidades face aos desafios futuros.

Insurance Europe’s perspective on the European solution to reduce the impact of natural catastrophes – Nicolas Jeanmart, Head of Personal and General Insurance

The world is facing an increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related natural disasters, such as floods, storms, and heatwaves. These extreme events, combined with the rising costs of properties, are causing escalating economic damage. In Europe, between 1980 and 2023, economic losses of €738bn were recorded, with over 22% of these losses occurring between 2021 and 2023 alone. Yet, only around 25% of these losses were insured, according to data from the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA). This creates a substantial protection gap, leaving communities and businesses vulnerable to the impacts of these events.

The root cause of these increasing climate-related disasters is clear: greenhouse gas emissions, which reached record level in 2024. As a result, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest levels in at least 800 000 years, contributing to rising temperatures, with, in 2024, a global temperature rise of approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. As the atmosphere retains more moisture, it fuels more intense rainfall, leading to destructive floods, storms, and heatwaves. The consequences of this are becoming increasingly evident, with events like the record rainfall from Storm Boris and the recent floods in Valencia.

To address the growing protection gap, a number of proposed solutions are being discussed at the European level, driven in particular by EIOPA, the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the European Stability Mechanism. This is a positive development, notably because it is raising awareness on the need for Member States and local authorities to take action. At the same time, it will be important to make sure that the right decisions are made at the appropriate level, particularly in determining what should be addressed at the European level and what should be left to Member States. For instance, in its response to EIOPA’s consultation on a risk awareness tool, Insurance Europe recommended to incentivise the development of tools at national level, as opposed to developing a European tool.

Another important consideration will be to make sure that we are addressing the right problem. As an example, most proposed solutions focus on the supply side of the protection gap, assuming the issue lies in insurers’ lack of capacity to provide coverage – an assumption that does not reflect current market realities. In reality, one cause of the protection gap is that some risks are not insurable at an affordable price; this can be due, for instance, to a building having been built in the wrong place. This is why there is a need to, first and foremost, enhance climate resilience at the national, regional and local levels. The focus must shift from merely paying for damages after disasters to proactively reducing risks before they occur. This requires a fundamental shift, with a significantly higher focus on prevention and adaptation.

In this respect, while the insurance industry plays a key role in promoting risk awareness, offering expert advice, developing innovative insurance solutions, and incentivising risk reduction through its risk-based underwriting, the long-term success of any efforts to reduce the protection gap depends on incentivising risk reduction at the community level. In this regard, governments (at all levels), communities, and individuals all have key roles to play. Public authorities should prioritise investments in disaster risk management, including hazard mapping integrated into urban planning and zoning. Stricter building codes and land-use planning are essential, along with the principle of “building back better”. Moreover, restoring natural ecosystems, such as wetlands and forests, can act as natural buffers, absorbing excess rainfall and reducing the risk of floods. At the same time, early warning systems and public awareness campaigns can promote preparedness, ultimately saving lives and reducing economic losses.

Prioritising adaptation and risk reduction can narrow the protection gap by reducing economic losses and ensuring that insurance remains a viable tool for protecting people and businesses at affordable levels in the future.

Lessons Learned from Public-Private Partnerships

Christopher Yeates, Public Sector Business Growth Lead, Guy Carpenter

On Friday 21 March, I had the pleasure of attending the APS’ event on natural catastrophe solutions, and the privilege of being able to share my thoughts and Guy Carpenter’s experience on ‘lessons learned from public private partnerships’. Guy Carpenter supports the work and proposals of the APS and is proud to continue to partner with the Association to build resilience in Portugal and support innovation in the market.

I began by presenting evidence from multilateral, academic, and industry research that there is a powerful link between the penetration of natural catastrophe insurance in a country, and that country’s ability to recover quickly when disaster strikes. Mandatory insurance coverage for households means that families, communities, businesses, and the national economy endure lower costs and higher resilience over time.

This is because in the short term they have quick access to capital to fund reconstruction and maintain supply chains, and in the longer run the government is less reliant on measures such as tax increases and borrowing and can invest in public services and infrastructure.

However, high insurance penetration in a country for natural catastrophes is very difficult to achieve without public-private insurance partnerships (PPPs). PPPs are collaborations between the government and the (re)insurance industry to enable optimal protection and diversified risk-sharing that would not be possible without intervention.

We covered case studies to demonstrate how countries with mandatory coverage such as New Zealand have recovered very strongly after seismic events compared to countries where there is no mandatory coverage or collaboration between the government and the insurance industry.

We then compared different public-private insurance protection systems for earthquake risk, including the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) and the California Earthquake Authority (CEA), across design variables such as coverage, pricing, triggers, level of international risk-sharing, and risk mitigation.

Finally, we considered recent developments in this area. For example, in Italy, new legislation is coming into force on March 31, 2025, mandating all businesses to obtain insurance against earthquakes, floods, landslides, inundations, and river overflows. Included within the legislation are the rules for a state-funded catastrophe reinsurance scheme, backed by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance’s SACE SpA.

In conclusion, we observed that all PPP solutions should be tailored to the individual market conditions, political environment, and nature of the natural catastrophe protection gap being addressed. However, we were able to learn some lessons which can be generally applied:

1. Government legislation mandating natural catastrophe coverage is most effective when combined with robust and transparent compliance measures, optimised risk sharing with the private sector through a carefully designed PPP, and a state guarantee for losses which exceeds commercial capacity.
2. PPPs should retain a level of risk-based pricing whilst balancing the need for policy affordability.
3. PPPs should create direct financial incentives for policyholders to invest in resilience.
4. Strong governance, flexibility, and shared control of the PPP by the public and private sectors allows stakeholders to expand the coverage and remit of the scheme to address other risks, creating efficiencies and avoiding the need for multiple schemes and gaps in protection.
5. Scheduled reviews of the PPP and renewal processes are an effective way to maintain the scheme’s relevance, performance, and political buy-in.
6. Pre-funded models allow schemes to build a fund to leverage traditional and alternative capital, pay claims more quickly, and invest in risk mitigation.
7. PPPs should allocate a portion of income / fund capacity to invest in academic research, national risk mitigation programs, and public education campaigns.