{"id":1502,"date":"2024-09-30T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T13:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/?p=1502"},"modified":"2024-10-01T09:53:04","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T09:53:04","slug":"jurisprudencia-1-3-2-2-2-2-3-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/?p=1502","title":{"rendered":"A RESILI\u00caNCIA DAS SEGURADORAS E O CONE DE PLAUSIBILIDADE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-55yzng-1ab72f0a4fb2591b75ec6f23da8dfa1d\">\n.avia-section.av-55yzng-1ab72f0a4fb2591b75ec6f23da8dfa1d{\nbackground-color:#2c5778;\nbackground-image:unset;\nz-index:0;\nposition:relative;\n}\n.av-curtain-footer.av-curtain-activated #main .avia-section.av-55yzng-1ab72f0a4fb2591b75ec6f23da8dfa1d{\nz-index:0;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id='av_section_1'  class='avia-section av-55yzng-1ab72f0a4fb2591b75ec6f23da8dfa1d main_color avia-section-small avia-no-border-styling  avia-builder-el-0  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.av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:25px;\npadding:0 0 0 0;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .special-heading-inner-border{\nborder-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.01);\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .av-subheading{\nfont-size:20px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .av-special-heading-tag .heading-wrap:before{\nborder-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.01);\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .av-special-heading-tag .heading-wrap:after{\nborder-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.01);\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 479px){ \n#top .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c{\nmargin:0 0 -100px 0;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:17px;\n}\n}\n\n@media only screen and (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 989px){ \n#top .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c{\nmargin:0 0 -35px 0;\n}\n}\n\n@media only screen and (min-width: 480px) and (max-width: 767px){ \n#top .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c{\nmargin:0 0 -35px 0;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:0.8em;\n}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-9ijdo-f3a43dec0a38fcccc729f07bf48a796c av-special-heading-h6 custom-color-heading blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  av-inherit-size'><h6 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Newsletter APS #05 | setembro 2024<\/h6><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/main><!-- close content main element --><\/div><\/div><div id='after_section_1'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-1502'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n<div  class='flex_column av-trht6-2531b05852eb1b77cb261c9b9e83c8d6 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_section  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  first flex_column_div  '     ><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-e9plz-8ffcd0ae1f2734dc492daf9defc0daa1\">\n#top .av-post-metadata-container.av-e9plz-8ffcd0ae1f2734dc492daf9defc0daa1{\nfont-size:14px;\nmargin:0 0 1px 0;\n}\n#top .av-post-metadata-container.av-e9plz-8ffcd0ae1f2734dc492daf9defc0daa1 .av-post-metadata-container-inner{\nfont-size:14px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-post-metadata-container av-e9plz-8ffcd0ae1f2734dc492daf9defc0daa1 av-metadata-container-align-left  avia-builder-el-4  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first  av-metadata-container-1'><div class='av-post-metadata-container-inner'><span class=\"av-post-metadata-content av-post-metadata-meta-content\"><span class=\"av-post-metadata-content av-post-metadata-category\"><span class=\"av-post-metadata-category-link\" ><a href=\"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/?cat=28\" >An\u00e1lise Estrat\u00e9gica<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0{\nmargin:0 0 0 0;\npadding-bottom:0;\nfont-size:30px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0 .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:30px;\npadding:0 0 20px 0;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n\n@media only screen and (min-width: 480px) and (max-width: 767px){ \n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0 .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:0.8em;\n}\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 479px){ \n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0 .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:0.8em;\n}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1b9wa-cf2073a3796ce4a29645c4e318d22cb0 av-special-heading-h1 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-5  el_after_av_post_metadata  el_before_av_textblock  av-inherit-size'><h1 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >A RESILI\u00caNCIA DAS SEGURADORAS E O CONE DE PLAUSIBILIDADE<\/h1><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-lpcvxr49-658fa9932d29cf43ab3d722201b819e3 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1516\" src=\"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2000\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel-1030x412.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel-768x307.jpg 768w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel-1536x614.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel-1500x600.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Pestel-705x282.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2zmrk8-5934f042f7e73a64d8b3b9457abb5c0d '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><div><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Atualmente as seguradoras enfrentam um conjunto de preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es que refletem as mudan\u00e7as aceleradas e simult\u00e2neas em v\u00e1rios dom\u00ednios como o econ\u00f3mico, o tecnol\u00f3gico e o ambiental.<\/p>\n<p>A pandemia do COVID-19 demonstrou o impacto devastador dos riscos sist\u00e9micos na economia global. Outros riscos desta categoria, como os ataques cibern\u00e9ticos massivos, as crises financeiras, os eventos extremos da natureza (inc\u00eandios florestais, terramotos, inunda\u00e7\u00f5es) e as crises geopol\u00edticas colocam as seguradoras em cen\u00e1rios complexos onde os modelos de resposta tradicionais n\u00e3o servem.<\/p>\n<p>Para al\u00e9m da necessidade de desenvolver a sua adaptabilidade nos modelos de neg\u00f3cio e nas parcerias transversais e intersectoriais, devem capacitar- se com modelos de avalia\u00e7\u00e3o de risco que permitam avaliar a sua constante evolu\u00e7\u00e3o, como \u00e9 o caso do risco geopol\u00edtico.<\/p>\n<p>Neste contexto do risco sist\u00e9mico e dos eventos causadores de crises em cadeia, existe uma t\u00e9cnica anal\u00edtica que ajuda na an\u00e1lise din\u00e2mica, designada cone de plausibilidade e que \u00e9 uma t\u00e9cnica de constru\u00e7\u00e3o de cen\u00e1rios em situa\u00e7\u00f5es de grande incerteza futura.<\/p>\n<p>O cone de plausibilidade consiste num processo estruturado que usa\u00a0<em>key drivers<\/em>\u00a0e assun\u00e7\u00f5es para gerar um conjunto de cen\u00e1rios alternativos plaus\u00edveis que ajudam o decisor a imaginar v\u00e1rios futuros e as respetivas din\u00e2micas. Trata-se de uma ferramenta de an\u00e1lise estrat\u00e9gica que \u00e9 muito \u00fatil para as seguradoras na avalia\u00e7\u00e3o das poss\u00edveis consequ\u00eancias financeiras de um evento.<\/p>\n<p>A t\u00e9cnica implica a ado\u00e7\u00e3o dos seguintes passos:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Reunir um conjunto de peritos de background diverso. Definir o assunto ou tema a ser examinado e o per\u00edodo temporal para a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o (exemplo: 2 meses, 3 anos, 10 anos)<\/li>\n<li>Identificar os\u00a0<em>drivers<\/em>que s\u00e3o\u00a0<em>key factors<\/em>\u00a0ou for\u00e7as, mais \u00fateis na defini\u00e7\u00e3o do assunto e do seu contexto. Faz\u00ea-lo atrav\u00e9s de mnem\u00f3nicas como por exemplo o PESTAL, que significa as vari\u00e1veis\u00a0<strong>P<\/strong>ol\u00edtica,\u00a0<strong>E<\/strong>con\u00f3mica,\u00a0<strong>S<\/strong>ocial,\u00a0<strong>T<\/strong>ecnol\u00f3gica,\u00a0<strong>A<\/strong>mbiental e\u00a0<strong>L<\/strong>egal (em ingl\u00eas, PESTEL).<\/li>\n<li>Os\u00a0<em>drivers<\/em>, em n\u00famero de 4 a 7, devem de ser escritos de forma neutra e manter-se v\u00e1lidos durante o per\u00edodo definido para a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o. A t\u00edtulo de exemplo, deve escrever-se situa\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f3mica e n\u00e3o \u201cdecl\u00ednio do crescimento econ\u00f3mico\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Fazer assun\u00e7\u00f5es de como os\u00a0<em>drivers<\/em>ir\u00e3o atuar no decurso do tempo definido, de forma o mais concreta poss\u00edvel. Por exemplo, a economia crescer\u00e1 entre 2 a 4% ano nos pr\u00f3ximos 5 anos, e n\u00e3o, \u201ca economia crescer\u00e1\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>A partir daqui gerar o cen\u00e1rio base ou \u201c<em>baseline<\/em>\u201d que traduz, geralmente, a proje\u00e7\u00e3o para o futuro da situa\u00e7\u00e3o presente, usando as assun\u00e7\u00f5es sobre o f comportamento esperado da for\u00e7a ou\u00a0<em>key driver<\/em>, dentro da vari\u00e1vel. Depois, construir 1 a 3 cen\u00e1rios alternativos, mudando 1 assun\u00e7\u00e3o ou v\u00e1rias: um cen\u00e1rio mais negativo, outro mais positivo.<\/li>\n<li>Por fim, gerar um cen\u00e1rio\u00a0<em>wild card<\/em>, alterando a assun\u00e7\u00e3o que se considere menos prov\u00e1vel de apresentar altera\u00e7\u00e3o. Isto permitir\u00e1 criar um cen\u00e1rio de alto impacto \/ baixa probabilidade (<em>high impact low probability<\/em><strong>),\u00a0<\/strong>que, de outra forma, n\u00e3o seria considerado.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>O cone de plausibilidade \u00e9, assim, constru\u00eddo para mostrar a faixa de potenciais resultados financeiros e consequ\u00eancias no futuro, com base em incertezas e suposi\u00e7\u00f5es probabil\u00edsticas sobre a ocorr\u00eancia de eventos catastr\u00f3ficos. Por ser uma t\u00e9cnica de elabora\u00e7\u00e3o de cen\u00e1rios, ajuda a pensar no como nos podemos preparar para responder a cada um desses cen\u00e1rios. N\u00e3o se trata de fazer previs\u00f5es, mas de uma ferramenta de aux\u00edlio ao decisor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A pandemia do COVID-19 demonstrou o impacto devastador dos riscos sist\u00e9micos na economia global. Outros riscos desta categoria, como os ataques cibern\u00e9ticos massivos, as crises financeiras, os eventos extremos da natureza (inc\u00eandios florestais, terramotos, inunda\u00e7\u00f5es) e as crises geopol\u00edticas colocam as seguradoras em cen\u00e1rios complexos onde os modelos de resposta tradicionais n\u00e3o servem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1516,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"quote","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-quote","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analise-estrategica","post_format-post-format-quote"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1502"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1518,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1502\/revisions\/1518"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1516"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}