{"id":1437,"date":"2024-07-29T15:47:30","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T15:47:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/?p=1437"},"modified":"2024-07-30T08:15:15","modified_gmt":"2024-07-30T08:15:15","slug":"ricardo-ferreira-reis-3-2-2-3-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/?p=1437","title":{"rendered":"A muta\u00e7\u00e3o do risco &#8211; Por Paulo Portas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-alp8q5-b83b3ebd15698b2291b14a0ec4ab1fa7\">\n.avia-section.av-alp8q5-b83b3ebd15698b2291b14a0ec4ab1fa7{\nbackground-color:#c6325b;\nbackground-image:unset;\nz-index:0;\nposition:relative;\n}\n.av-curtain-footer.av-curtain-activated #main .avia-section.av-alp8q5-b83b3ebd15698b2291b14a0ec4ab1fa7{\nz-index:0;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id='av_section_1'  class='avia-section av-alp8q5-b83b3ebd15698b2291b14a0ec4ab1fa7 main_color avia-section-small avia-no-border-styling  avia-builder-el-0  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.av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:25px;\npadding:0 0 0 0;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .special-heading-inner-border{\nborder-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.01);\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:20px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-wrap:before{\nborder-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.01);\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-wrap:after{\nborder-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.01);\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 479px){ \n#top .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67{\nmargin:0 0 -100px 0;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:17px;\n}\n}\n\n@media only screen and (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 989px){ \n#top .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67{\nmargin:0 0 -35px 0;\n}\n}\n\n@media only screen and (min-width: 480px) and (max-width: 767px){ \n#top .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67{\nmargin:0 0 -35px 0;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:0.8em;\n}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-8244ql-3c831d07e2ca5e833f007b4458af5d67 av-special-heading-h6 custom-color-heading blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-2  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  av-inherit-size'><h6 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Newsletter APS #04 | julho 2024<\/h6><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/main><!-- close content main element --><\/div><\/div><div id='after_section_1'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-1437'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n<div  class='flex_column av-6kwi4-8e596f04c27eab16388547305a04b6bc av_one_full  avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_section  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  first flex_column_div  '     ><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-hlakc-11ef2cbb47b41d5d366e5e7b4b06b95f\">\n#top .av-post-metadata-container.av-hlakc-11ef2cbb47b41d5d366e5e7b4b06b95f{\nfont-size:14px;\nmargin:0 0 1px 0;\n}\n#top .av-post-metadata-container.av-hlakc-11ef2cbb47b41d5d366e5e7b4b06b95f .av-post-metadata-container-inner{\nfont-size:14px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-post-metadata-container av-hlakc-11ef2cbb47b41d5d366e5e7b4b06b95f av-metadata-container-align-left  avia-builder-el-4  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first  av-metadata-container-1'><div class='av-post-metadata-container-inner'><span class=\"av-post-metadata-content av-post-metadata-meta-content\"><span class=\"av-post-metadata-content av-post-metadata-category\"><span class=\"av-post-metadata-category-link\" ><a href=\"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/?cat=15\" >Opini\u00e3o<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-ls1ryc5k-154cdb4a99bfdb087d908f7e2cdb72a5\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-ls1ryc5k-154cdb4a99bfdb087d908f7e2cdb72a5{\nmargin:0 0 0 0;\npadding-bottom:-20px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-ls1ryc5k-154cdb4a99bfdb087d908f7e2cdb72a5 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-ls1ryc5k-154cdb4a99bfdb087d908f7e2cdb72a5 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-ls1ryc5k-154cdb4a99bfdb087d908f7e2cdb72a5 av-special-heading-h6 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-5  el_after_av_post_metadata  el_before_av_heading '><div class='av-subheading av-subheading_above'><p>Paulo Portas<\/p>\n<\/div><h6 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >  <\/h6><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e{\nmargin:20px 0 0 0;\npadding-bottom:20px;\nfont-size:30px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:30px;\npadding:0 0 10px 0;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n\n@media only screen and (min-width: 480px) and (max-width: 767px){ \n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:0.8em;\n}\n}\n\n@media only screen and (max-width: 479px){ \n#top #wrap_all .av-special-heading.av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e .av-special-heading-tag{\nfont-size:0.8em;\n}\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-ls1rzmt1-47665d5394d2747bee423444934ff22e av-special-heading-h1 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_image  av-inherit-size'><h1 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >A muta\u00e7\u00e3o do risco<\/h1><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-ls1s056x-88a65773aba5f16f81c54aad00f39950\">\n.avia-image-container.av-ls1s056x-88a65773aba5f16f81c54aad00f39950 img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-ls1s056x-88a65773aba5f16f81c54aad00f39950 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-ls1s056x-88a65773aba5f16f81c54aad00f39950 av-styling- avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-1443 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-1443 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER.jpg\" alt='' title='PP ER'  height=\"800\" width=\"2000\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" srcset=\"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER.jpg 2000w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER-1030x412.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER-768x307.jpg 768w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER-1536x614.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER-1500x600.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/PP-ER-705x282.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2000px) 100vw, 2000px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-ls1s13k0-bd5659602c8ec4c80c8d120e3dc440cc '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>O <em>risco<\/em> j\u00e1 n\u00e3o \u00e9 o que era.\u00a0 Curiosamente, o risco \u2013 conceito determinante na miss\u00e3o das seguradoras \u2013, \u00e9 tamb\u00e9m mat\u00e9ria essencial de estudo nas li\u00e7\u00f5es de geopol\u00edtica e geoeconomia. Cada mudan\u00e7a na \u201cbalan\u00e7a de poder\u201d das rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais, leva consigo grandes altera\u00e7\u00f5es no desenvolvimento de riscos e sua abordagem conceptual, territorial, tecnol\u00f3gica.<\/p>\n<p>No tempo da <em>Guerra Fria<\/em>, o risco pol\u00edtico estava directamente ligado \u00e0 dissuas\u00e3o nuclear e \u00e0 vigil\u00e2ncia rec\u00edproca entre os blocos militares, a NATO e o Pacto de Vars\u00f3via. O lugar mais perigoso do mundo podia ser a fronteira entre as duas Alemanhas; a Europa era o territ\u00f3rio privilegiado das tens\u00f5es. Claro, houve conflitos \u201cby proxy\u201d, em continentes terceiros, que envolviam, habitualmente, disputa pela simpatia do chamado \u2013 lembram-se? \u2013 Terceiro Mundo.<\/p>\n<p>O tempo em que vivemos \u00e9 muito diferente: mais livre e, em certo sentido, menos seguro. As superpot\u00eancias em competi\u00e7\u00e3o s\u00e3o os EUA (incumbente) e a China (desafiante). A NATO persiste essencialmente porque a R\u00fassia existe e \u00e9 liderada por quem \u00e9, mantendo perigosas pretens\u00f5es de \u201cespa\u00e7o vital\u201d, como revelou a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia. O Ocidente disp\u00f5e de uma alian\u00e7a pol\u00edtico-militar; a ideia de Oriente n\u00e3o disp\u00f5e de coisa semelhante. O epicentro de gravidade econ\u00f3mica passou brutalmente para a regi\u00e3o <em>\u00c1sia Pac\u00edfico<\/em>, onde os americanos t\u00eam um papel decisivo e os europeus est\u00e3o longe. Acresce que a competi\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 essencialmente geoecon\u00f3mica, porque a China, ao contr\u00e1rio da R\u00fassia, modernizou, transformou, diversificou e abriu a sua economia, que antes de Deng Xiao Ping era pobre de J\u00f3 e hoje \u00e9 l\u00edder global ajustada em paridades de poder de compra. Do Atl\u00e2ntico para o Pac\u00edfico, de Berlim para o Mar do Sul da China, da geopol\u00edtica pura e dura para uma complexidade maior, em que muitos Estados t\u00eam alian\u00e7as m\u00faltiplas e vari\u00e1veis (basta ver a expans\u00e3o dos BRICS) ou \u201csegmentam\u201d as suas afinidades (a India ascendente \u00e9 o melhor exemplo). E o sistema internacional que temos, em torno da ONU, \u00e9 cada vez mais uma fotografia a preto e branco, de outro tempo.<\/p>\n<p>O risco, se pensarmos bem, aumentou, porque \u00e9, geopol\u00edtico e geoecon\u00f3mico. Em Taiwan, o que \u00e9 mais inquietante: uma reunifica\u00e7\u00e3o for\u00e7ada pela coer\u00e7\u00e3o militar ou a concentra\u00e7\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o mundial de <em>chips<\/em> na ilha mais tecnol\u00f3gica do planeta? \u00c9 precisamente neste ponto \u2013 o da tecnologia \u2013, que a muta\u00e7\u00e3o do risco se tornou vertiginosa.<\/p>\n<p>Onde o poder da Am\u00e9rica \u00e9 mais arrasador \u2013 a par do or\u00e7amento de defesa e do peso do d\u00f3lar \u2013 \u00e9 na transforma\u00e7\u00e3o digital, que \u00e9 a consequ\u00eancia direta do n\u00edvel de inova\u00e7\u00e3o de que pa\u00edses e mercados s\u00e3o capazes. Onde a ascens\u00e3o da China \u00e9 mais impressionante \u00e9, principalmente, nas \u201ctecnologias altamente sens\u00edveis\u201d. N\u00e3o por acaso, a liga dos campe\u00f5es da \u201ceconomia da internet\u201d \u00e9 s\u00f3 ianque e sino. Talvez a Europa devesse ter percebido que lhe acontecera um acidente severo quando, h\u00e1 menos de dez anos, os chineses a superaram em percentagem do PIB aplicada na inova\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p>A Intelig\u00eancia Artificial somar\u00e1 ao digital muitas outras oportunidades, d\u00favidas e riscos. Aqui, EUA e China destacam-se ainda mais. \u00c9 um mundo em grande medida desconhecido, sobre o qual conv\u00e9m n\u00e3o ter posi\u00e7\u00f5es definitivas. \u00c9 ineg\u00e1vel o progresso que a IA pode trazer aos doentes, aos f\u00e1rmacos ou aos cuidados no envelhecimento; \u00e9 inescap\u00e1vel que a IA pode colocar desafios s\u00e9rios \u2013 na integridade acad\u00e9mica das provas \u2013 ao ensino superior; \u00e9 perplexizante que uma senten\u00e7a judicial possa ser redigida pela IA generativa; a IA j\u00e1 \u00e9 \u00e1rea de enorme litig\u00e2ncia quando se aplica aos direitos de autor. Imaginem a IA em m\u00e3os erradas no dom\u00ednio da pol\u00edtica \u2013 imagem perfeitas mas falsas; discursos magn\u00edficos mas desvirtuados; factos \u201ccriados\u201d e divulgados mas que nunca aconteceram. \u00c9 todo um desafio, porque afecta a diferen\u00e7a entre verdade e mentira, autenticidade e manipula\u00e7\u00e3o. Mas \u00e9 neste mundo que teremos de navegar. Conhecendo melhor os riscos, para os atenuar ou evitar. Na certeza de que \u00e9 risco hoje, o que amanh\u00e3 pode n\u00e3o ser.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O risco j\u00e1 n\u00e3o \u00e9 o que era.\u00a0 Curiosamente, o risco \u2013 conceito determinante na miss\u00e3o das seguradoras \u2013, \u00e9 tamb\u00e9m mat\u00e9ria essencial de estudo nas li\u00e7\u00f5es de geopol\u00edtica e geoeconomia. Cada mudan\u00e7a na \u201cbalan\u00e7a de poder\u201d das rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais, leva consigo grandes altera\u00e7\u00f5es no desenvolvimento de riscos e sua abordagem conceptual, territorial, tecnol\u00f3gica.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1443,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opiniao"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1437"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1437\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1445,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1437\/revisions\/1445"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/segurosecidadania.pt\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}